Ukraine-Russia war: Putin sets conditions for ceasefire - but Ukraine says it is 'complete sham' (2024)

Prosecutors at theInternational Criminal Court (ICC) are reportedly investigating alleged Russiancyberattacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as possiblewar crimes.

According to sources familiar with the case gathered by Reuters, the probe is examining attacks on infrastructure that endangered lives by disrupting power and water supplies, cuttingconnections to emergency responders or knocking out mobile dataservices that transmit air raid warnings.

Ukrainian teams are said to be helping to investigate cyberattacks committed from the beginning of the invasion in February 2022.

Probes could look as far back as 2015, the year after Russia's seizure and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.

Moscow has previously denied that it carries outcyberattacks.

The ICC has already issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes.

In a statement, the court issued the warrant on suspicion of unlawful deportation of children and unlawful transfer of people from the territory of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.

Vladimir Putin has not offered a peace plan to Ukraine but instead set a list of "maximalist demands", says a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Speaking today at a meeting with Russian foreign ministry officials, Mr Putin said his country would be ready for peace talks "tomorrow" if Ukraine agreed to his demands.

Those include the immediate withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the assurance that Ukraine will give up on its plans to join NATO.

"This is not a peace plan but a series of maximalist demands directed at the West and Ukraine in exchange for ending hostilities," Tatiana Stanovaya posted on X.

"Moscow offers no concessions; there is no scope for compromise."

Timing of Swiss summit

Mr Putin's peace proposal has come the day before world leaders are due to meet in Switzerland to hold an international peace summit.

The high-level gathering is aimed at broadening support for Kyiv's peace plan and dialling up pressure on Moscow to end the conflict.

The timing of Russia's peace plan immediately before the Swiss summit is "with the intention of devaluing it," according to Ms Stanovaya.

She added: "Contrary to the popular belief that 'Putin has time,' he urgently needs to consolidate Russia's military advantage in Ukraine through a 'peace process' to render this superiority irreversible, as Russia may lose its military advantage in the coming year.

"Thus, Moscow views the Swiss conference as an escalating action against Russia, an effort to solidify an anti-Russian stance globally, and the Kremlin is determined to thwart this."

Putin sowing destabilisation and discord

The Kremlin is also aware that a destabilised Ukraine and a divided West would bring Russia closer to its definition of victory in the conflict.

That, according to Ms Stanovaya, is a key reason for Mr Putin's peace plan announcement.

She argues that the plans are designed to spread division, with some likely attracted to the idea of an immediate ceasefire even if it comes with accepting Russia's demands.

"Putin's immediate goal is to create conditions that would compel Zelenskyy to step down and draw Ukraine into 'negotiations' that would destabilise the state, thereby coercing Kyiv to acquiesce to Russian demands in the future," added Ms Stanovaya.

"This strategy would relieve Russia of the need to continue military action and reduce the necessity for the West to arm Ukraine.

"At the same time, the 'proposal' is designed to sow discord in the West and appeal to those who desire immediate peace, encouraging support for the Russian 'proposal'."

The last operational trans-shipping point for Russian gas exports to Europe has reportedly been shelled by Ukraine.

According to Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of Russia's western Kursk region, Ukraine shelled several settlements including the key town of Sudzha.

Mr Smirnov made nomention of any damage to the gas infrastructure, though said two people were treated for injuries.

He also said a residential house was destroyed as a result of the shelling.

Russian gas supplies to Europe have plummeted since the start of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The country supplied a total of about 63.8 billion cubicmetres (bcm) of gas to Europe by various routes in 2022,according to Gazprom data and Reuters calculations.

The volumedeclined by 55.6% to 28.3 bcm last year.

Russia has increasingly centralised their command and control of irregular forces, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

Irregular military is any non-standard military component that is distinct from a country's national armed forces.

In February 2023, Russia established its Volunteer Corps, uniting over 20,000 volunteers, reservists, mercenaries and ex-convicts, who serve in numerous irregular units.

Since then, more irregular forces have been deployed in Ukraine, mainly as light infantry units which, according to the MoD, "lack integrated artillery or air support".

As a result of this, the MoD says Russia's irregular forces have likely sustained proportionally higher casualty rates than Russia's regular units over the last nine months.

Ukraine is planning record power imports today following significant infrastructure damage by Russian missile attacks, Ukrainian power grid operator Ukrenergo said.

Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's energy sector have intensified since March, resulting in blackouts in many regions.

This has forced Kyiv to start large-scale electricity imports from the EU.

A ministry statement said the country would import 31,904 megawatt hours (MWh) of power today versus the previous record of 29,796 MWh on Wednesday.

We have been reporting today on comments made by Vladimir Putin at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs meeting.

Now, John Foreman, who served as UK defence attache in Moscow from 2019 to 2022, has reminded people to keep the words issued by Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas in 2022 in mind.

At the Munich Security Conference, Ms Kallas had explained Soviet negotiating tactics and noted it was important to "keep that in mind all the time".

She said if the West were to consider offering Russia something when it made demands then Moscow "would get something that [it] didn't have before".

Quoting Soviet-time foreign minister Andrei Gromyko, she noted that he had said negotiation tactics of the Soviet Union involved three things.

"First, demand the maximum," she said.

"Do not ask, but demand something that has never been yours.

"Second, present ultimatums.

"And third, do not give up one inch in negotiations because there will always be people in the West who will offer you something.

"And then in the end you will have one third or even half of something you didn't have before. So we have to keep that in mind all the time."

Vladimir Putin's ceasefire offer cannot be trusted, the Ukrainian president has said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned the Russian president would not stop his offensive, even if his demands were met.

His comments on the sidelines of the G7 summit come after Mr Putin set out a list of requirements he wants Ukraine to meet before negotiations can begin.

These included Ukraine giving up its plans to join NATO and its troops withdrawing from the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent

As ever with Vladimir Putin, timing is everything.

It's no coincidence this speech was made on the eve of the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland.

Russia won't be there as it hasn't been invited. So this was about putting Moscow's side across first and undermining the summit's legitimacy before it's even begun.

Is his peace proposal credible? Not according to Ukraine or the West - Kyiv, NATO and the Pentagon have already all dismissed it.

But the Kremlin sees things very differently, or at least pretends to.

"We didn't start the war," Russia's president said. "It was the Kyiv regime."

According to Mr Putin, Russia is the victim. Hence why he says Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the regions Russia occupies, rather than the other way around.

In reality, he knows these conditions are not something Kyiv will ever agree to. Ceding territory is a red line for Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

But that doesn't matter to Mr Putin. This was more about seizing the initiative ahead of the Switzerland summit, where Mr Zelenskyy will be centre stage.

As for relations with the West, they are "close to the point of no return", he said.

What does that mean exactly?

There was no mention of nuclear weapons this time but it was a bleak assessment nonetheless and one that many in the West might agree with.

It's fair to say relations between Russia and the West have taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent days.

We've had new threats, new sanctions, and new military manoeuvres.

Then yesterday, to top it off, the G7's $50bn loan deal for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets - a deal Mr Putin called "theft" that will prompt a retaliation.

We don't know what the response will be yet but it's likely to involve the seizure of private US assets in Russia - something that's already been discussed in Moscow. Last month Mr Putin signed a decree outlining how it would work.

It all gives the sense that we're suddenly moving more quickly along the path to possible escalation. And it makes one wonder - where will this end?

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin says Vladimir Putin is not in a position to be telling Ukraine what it must do to achieve peace.

Mr Putin said Russia would be ready for peace talks "tomorrow" if Ukraine agreed to his demands.

Those include the immediate withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the assurance that Ukraine will give up on its plans to join NATO.

Mr Austin argued that Putin could end the war today if he wants to and called on the Russian president to withdraw his troops from Ukrainian territory.

"He is not in any position to dictate to Ukraine what theymust do to bring about peace," Mr Austin told reporters at NATOheadquarters in Brussels.

Turkey will tell leaders at this weekend's peace summit in Switzerland that a meeting with both Kyiv and Moscow present will yield more results, a Turkish diplomatic source has said.

Foreign minister Hakan Fidan will join world leaders at the summit, to which Russia is not invited, to reportedly reiterate Turkey's call for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.

NATO ally Turkey has sought to maintain good ties with both Kyiv and Moscow during the war, offering to host peace talks or mediate.

"(Fidan) will point out that a summit that all sides attend has a higher probability of yielding results," the source told Reuters.

Turkey supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and provides it with military support, but also opposes Western sanctions on Moscow.